Mullins and Elliott © Photo Healy Racing
There's only one story at Punchestown 2018. The prospect of watching Douvan, Samcro, Laurina & Co is great. Acclaiming Davy Russell as champion jockey again will be great too. But everything about the season finale fits into a narrative about Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott slugging it out to be champion trainer. Inevitably some will crib about too much being made of it. Ignore anyone with such a woeful lack of occasion. This is momentous stuff. Everyone's got a hunch, and should have too. Mine is Mullins is going to do it again.
It's only a hunch. There's going to be any amount of statistics and trend analysis floating around this week. Much of it will simply underline the resonance of that old gag about 98 per cent of statistics being made up on the spot. Elliott's got momentum and a half million lead. It's why he's odds-on to win the crown for the first time. But any shade of odds-against about Mullins looks the bet.
He had over €400,000 to make up on Elliott last year and won out by just less than €200,000. And that was despite not getting close to replicating the scale of his 2015 tally. Mullins won 16 races that year: a mind-boggling ten of them were Grade Ones. Every cent will count this time and place money could be very important. Bumper strength might be too. But it's the Grade One's that look likely to be crucial and Mullins appears to have the edge there.
Samcro apart, Elliott doesn't look to have 'banker' material in any of the top-flight events. That doesn't mean he can't scoop up his share. But Mullins is on the verge of saddling up to a hundred runners this week and there's a strength in depth to his Grade One squad that can ultimately prove decisive. That's my hunch. But my hunch this time last year was that Titus might win the Derby and last month he beat two home in a 20 runner handicap at Doncaster!
There's a real sense of theatre about this face-off between two outstanding sportsmen that racing has to exploit to the max. Even those with minimal interest in the game can get such a rivalry between two such contrasting figures. And the mechanics of how the result is decided are hardly quantum in complexity. Anyone can get money and one horse finishing in front of another.
The pressure of such attention on those involved is a different story. After finally overhauling his rival last year, Mullins confessed to not enjoying the struggle at all. Elliott admitted to being gutted at the defeat. This time he's got the momentum of beating his rival to 200 hundred winners, and to two Grand Nationals. Behind the straight public bat Elliott is entitled to feel this must be his time. And this is so delicately balanced he may well be right. Either way this is one to relish.
Looking further ahead to the summer National Hunt action it's interesting to see if there will be implications from last week's controversial decision at Cheltenham to cancel a race because of the very warm weather conditions. Top cross-channel trainer Donald McCain was just one figure warning a dangerous precedent has been set, especially in terms of summer racing.
The flippant response from an Irish perspective is that the weather here is usually so appalling it hardly matters. And there seems to be a broad push to portray last week's Cheltenham decision as a once-off, in terms of both the impact of 28 degree heat in April on horses coming out of a very cold winter and in the context of how one animal, Dame Rose, collapsed and died after an earlier race.
But it's legitimate to ponder if an immediate decision made by a variety of professionals for the best of motives may have longer-term reverberations. It's probably correct that horses haven't had a chance to get used to better weather conditions. But describing the abandoned race - a three mile and two furlong chase - as an 'extreme distance' looks questionable.
This is pretty routine National Hunt fare. If you can't stand over it as a reasonable test, whatever the circumstances, then it's not unreasonable to ask if too much is being asked of the stewards discretion or if individual vets on duty at meetings are on a hiding to nothing if something unfortunate happens.
Because to take the Cheltenham logic to its natural conclusion then it's hardly widely speculative to wonder if a baking hot summer - unlikely as it may sound - could see any race around the three mile distance become a potential concern. And on a much broader level it introduces some uncomfortable questions about summer jumping in general.
With so much unease about the long term sustainability of on-course bookmaking it was interesting to read how much the four cross-channel pitches offered for sale by David Power made last week. York generated £180,000 sterling, Ascot £160,000, Cheltenham £152,000 while Newmarket's Rowley course made £52,000.
Last month Power's pitches in Ireland were auctioned with Leopardstown going for €240,000. The Curragh made half that while Galway was €100,000. Those results suggest there's still significant profit to be had from the biggest tracks holding the biggest meetings. But Power's Fairyhouse pitch going for just €2,250 is a stark reflection of how difficult business is on a day to day basis.
Punchestown, even full to the brim for five days this week, went for €27,000. Roscommon generated €7,000. Other pitches at Clonmel and Ballinrobe didn't attract a bid. As an indicator of where the future of the business lies it was pretty black and white.
Finally an indicator of how effectively Mendelssohn will cope with the demands of the upcoming Kentucky Derby would be very handy indeed. He has the latent talent to be a leading contender. But it's an enormous ask for a colt who has yet to face kickback and whose capacity to avoid it in the first place will be a major test for Ryan Moore.
It's been confirmed Moore is heading for Louisville rather than Newmarket. He's ridden the 'Durby' before and loved it. But in dirt terms he's inevitably a novice in comparison to the best American riders. Against that he knows the colt better than anyone at this stage.
Flip it around though: if a US rider with limited knowledge of Newmarket but familiar with the horse was travelling to the Guineas, would that be regarded as a plus or a minus on this side of the pond?
