RULE THE WORLD and David Mullins win the 2016 Grand National for trainer Mouse Morris © Photo Healy Racing
A lot has been said recently about the fact that the Irish contingent at Cheltenham tend to stoke up the fires of Anglo-Irish needle with their flag waving and chest beating due to our incredible success in recent years. As pointed out previously, this is nothing more than a bit of harmless fun that some folk on both sides of the Irish Sea take a little too seriously.
So let’s leave national pride at the door for the time being and take a genuine look at the home side’s chances of taking the wind from Irish sails at Aintree.
With last year’s winner of the Grand National Rule the World retired, many will look to runner-up The Last Samuri as this year’s favourite, but this is the Grand National, and as we all know, anything can happen.
Even so, for this article, we will concentrate on horses with odds on Betstars of 25/1 or less, as realistically this is where both nations’ best hopes for a winner lie.
The Home side
Of the 14 entrants with Antepost odds of 25/1 or less, nine are British-trained horses.
The Young Master (20/1) — Not one that many will give a chance to, but if the ground is decent, then he just might have a chance. Did well to finish sixth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham but as we said, the ground has to be perfect for Neil Mulholland’s horse.
Blaklion (14/1) — One of the best hopes of a homegrown winner and despite a bad mistake at Haydock, did well to come back and finish as runner-up. Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies who has two previous winners in Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002).
The Last Samuri (16/1) — Last year’s runner-up is most punters’ first choice this year, and although he is much higher in the weights, trainer Kim Bailey is insistent that this was the plan after finishing behind Rule the World twelve months ago.
One for Arthur (16/1) — A horse that is showing steady improvement over the season and although only placed fifth over the National fences in the Becher Chase, went on to win the Warwick National Trial in January. Stands a pretty good chance.
Definitly Red (14/1) — After destroying last year’s runner-up The Last Samuri in the Grimthorpe Chase winning by 14 lengths, the odds have tumbled on this horse. He has won four of his last six starts.
More of That (14/1) — This horse has great form in recent years, but a steady yet uninspiring outing at Cheltenham has taken the weight of expectation from his shoulders. Hopefully, less pressure on both horse and jockey will mean a result for trainer Jonjo O’Neill.
Vieux Lion Rouge (10/1) — Has won 11 of 21 starts including a win over the Grand National fences at Aintree in December. On his most recent start he beat Blacklion in the National Trial at Haydock in February. A leading contender and the current favourite.
Saphir du Rheu (20/1) — Finished 5th to Sizing John in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Has never raced over the National fences but did win a Novice Chase at the course.
Vicente (25/1) — Like Saphir du Rheu is trained by Paul Nicholls. Has been largely out of form this season and has yet to race over the National fences.
The Irish hopes
The chances of a repeat of last year’s one-two finish is looking slim based on Irish horses currently making our 25/1 cut.
Carlingford Lough (25/1) — Lost out in his hat-trick attempt for the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown but everyone knows this horse has plenty in the tank for a big race like the National. However, when was the last time a top weight won the Grand National? That’s right, Red Rum in 1974.
Pleasant Company (20/1) — Won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and in doing so got the nod for Aintree. Shorter odds than Carlingford Lough but many still feel this 9-year old has less chance to make his name on the biggest stage.
Foxrock (20/1) — One to watch out for this year after winning all four Hunter Chases on soft ground in Ireland. Trainer Ted Walsh’s daughter Katie is highly likely to be in the saddle so could it be that the first female jockey to win the Grand National will be Irish?
Cause Of Causes (16/1) — Won at the recent Cheltenham Festival for the third year in a row but they are his only wins in last four years. Finished 8th to Many Clouds in Grand National in 2015.
Ucello Conti (16/1) — Like Cause Of Causes is trained by the in-form Gordon Elliott. He has been knocking on the door in all the big handicap chases including when 4th to Vieux Lion Rouge at Haydock. Finished 6th in last year's National.
Based on the top of the betting market the British-trained runners look to have a strong hand and as British-trained runners have won 8 out of the last 9 years it is difficult to bet against them. That said the last 5 winners of the race have been priced at 25/1 or bigger which brings into contention a lot more Irish outsiders.
We won’t put our flags away just yet!
