2025 Ascot Gold Cup: Trends that could pick the winner

The Ascot Gold Cup is the centrepiece of the Royal meeting and one of the most coveted prizes in the sport.

It is the most prestigious stayers' race run in Europe, a two-and-a-half-mile test of stamina that dates back to the early 1800s and has a wonderful history.

We're taking a look at some of the key trends that might help pick the winner of Royal Ascot's feature race on day three.

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Key Trends: Ascot Gold Cup

Ascot Gold Cup Trends Deep Dive

Aidan O'Brien has won the Gold Cup at Ascot on more occasions than anyone, with nine, and the Ballydoyle supremo would have envisaged more glory with two-time winner Kyprios in 2025 but he was retired in May after meeting with a setback at home.

In his stead, stablemate Illinois winner of the Ormonde Stakes at Chester last month, has inherited favouritism as O'Brien seeks his fifth Gold Cup win since 2014.

With the 2023 scorer Courage Mon Ami for John & Thady Gosden currently sidelined, a new winner of this prestigious race is assured on Thursday.

Yeats won the Gold Cup four times from 2006-2009, though his final two wins remain a statistical anomaly as only one other winner going back to 1929 has been aged seven or older.

The Francis-Henri Graffard-trained Candelari is bidding to carry the famous Aga Khan silks to Gold Cup glory this year, although the French have won one just Gold Cup since Sagaro completed his hat-trick in 1977 and that came two decades ago via Westerner, when the race was run at York during Ascot's redevelopment work.

Illinois won the Queen's Vase at this meeting in 2024 and will bid to enhance a stellar record of winners in that Group 2 graduating to the Gold Cup, with three different Vase scorers bagging five Gold Cups between them since 2012.

Seven of the last 15 British-trained Gold Cup winners contested the Henry II Stakes at Sandown, a race won this year by the 2024 Gold Cup runner-up Trawlerman for the Gosden team.

In the last 15 years, Rite Of Passage, Estimate, Trip To Paris, Kyprios and Courage Mon Ami have all tasted Gold Cup glory as their maiden Group 1 successes.

Just two mares have won the race in the last 34 years, the latest being the unforgettable success for Sir Michael Stoute's Estimate in 2012 in the hands of Frankie Dettori for the delighted watching owner, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

4.202m. 3f. 210yds. 8 Declared.
Gold Cup (Group 1) (Class 1 ) of £650,000.00 4-y-o plus

• Formscan
• Race Info

1st - €368,615.00 2nd - €139,750.00 3rd - €69,940.00 4th - €34,840.00 5th - €17,485.00 6th - €8,775.00 Going - Good to Firm. 

Formscan - Following the retirement of dual winner Kyprios, Aidan O'Brien relies on the highly talented Illinois as he bids for a record-breaking 10th winner of this illustrious event. However, top-tier success has been elusive for the son of Galileo, who will be stepping into uncharted territory over this marathon trip. That is not the case with the 2024 runner-up, TRAWLERMAN, who has a major chance of going one better this year. The John and Thady Gosden-trained gelding stays well, is effective on the forecast going and enjoyed an ideal preparation by defeating Coltrane by five lengths in the Henry II at Sandown. His stable companion Sweet William and the unexposed French raider Candelari are also capable of being on the premises.

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  Odds Shortening Odds Lengthening

42	1st	Trawlerman	7/4 9/4	85/40
81	2nd	Illinois	13/8 5/2	9/4
74	6th	Candelari	100/30 5/2	11/4
38	4th	Sweet William	9/1 13/2	7/1
25	3rd	Dubai Future		25/1
16	5th	Coltrane		33/1
53	p.u.	Wonder Legend		40/1
67	7th	Yashin		50/1
Betting Percentage				113%
Each-Way Terms				3 1/5

 

4²

Trawlerman 8

85/40

1st

Rating: 118

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Price

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85/40

3 1/5

8¹

Illinois 5

9/4

2nd

Rating: 116

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9/4

3 1/5

7/4 9/4 16:14

7⁴

Candelari 5

11/4

6th

Rating: 118

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Price

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11/4

3 1/5

3⁸

Sweet William 7

7/1

4th

Rating: 116

• Odds

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7/1

3 1/5

2⁵

Dubai Future 10

25/1

3rd

Rating: 116

• Odds

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25/1

3 1/5

1⁶

Coltrane 9

33/1

5th

Rating: 112

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33/1

3 1/5

5³

Wonder Legend 6

40/1

p.u.

Rating: 108

• Odds

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40/1

3 1/5

6⁷

Yashin 7

50/1

7th

Rating: 106

• Odds

Price

E/W

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50/1

3 1/5