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A look ahead to the Arc

Leading LightLeading Light
© Photo Healy Racing

Connections of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runners will need to brace themselves for potential rainfall close to Sunday's race.

A field of 21 horses stood their ground at the first forfeit stage, with the leading ante-post hopes still in the mix, while the likes of Treve and Leading Light are expected to be supplemented for €100,000 on Thursday.

The ground at the Paris course was reported as officially good to soft on Tuesday by the International Racing Bureau, and it will be generally warm and dry in the region until Friday night.

John Lee, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said: "There is a chance of a shower but it is otherwise generally dry on Wednesday, and Thursday will have sunny periods with the chance of an isolated shower, but most areas are staying dry.

"There does appear to be an area of unsettled weather on Friday afternoon and early into Saturday.

"This includes the chance of thunder, which could bring a spell of heavy rain, although it looks at this stage as if this could disappear quite quickly. It will be mostly cloudy and dry after that.

"The temperatures are generally good, around 21C throughout the week during the day, which is above what is usually expected in early October."

Ground should not be a concern for Novellist, who has won on conditions ranging from good to firm to soft.

Trainer Andreas Wohler is confident his representative will strip much fitter than when winning at Baden Baden last time out.

Novellist is unbeaten this season, including three times at the highest level, but he really sprang to prominence when routing top-class opposition in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

Next time out in Germany he was nowhere near as impressive in seemingly weaker company, despite it being a Group One, but Wohler was using the race purely as a stepping stone.

Man-of-the-moment Johnny Murtagh was on board at Ascot and he will take over in the saddle once more at Longchamp.

"The horse is very well and he did his last piece of work (on Monday)," Wohler told At The Races.

"Everything has gone smooth and fine since his last race and hopefully it will for the next couple of days so we are looking forward to Sunday.

"He's a different type of horse since Baden Baden. It was a Group One race but we treated it as a prep race.

"A single-figure draw would be perfect, I don't think anybody would be happy with an outside draw.

"Johnny did everything right at Ascot, I spoke to him yesterday and he's really looking forward to it.

"He hasn't been to Germany to ride him but we've spoken a couple of times to keep him up to date.

"Orfevre couldn't be more impressive in his trial and he's a horse with a lot of class. We just need a bit of luck, like everybody."

Japanese runner Orfevre was denied victory in the dying strides of the race last year and he is primed to try his luck again after running an impressive trial when winning the Prix Foy.

He is set to be joined by fellow Japanese contender Kizuna, winner of the Prix Niel for trainer Shozo Sasaki.

Just behind Kizuna that day was Aidan O'Brien's Derby winner Ruler Of The World and he is one possible for Ballydoyle, along with last year's Derby winner Camelot and Racing Post Trophy winner Kingsbarns

Andre Fabre has left in Intello, Flintshire, Ocovango, Pirika and Penglai Pavilion, while Al Kazeem, Joshua Tree, The Fugue and Very Nice Name are other possibles.