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Winning patterns for Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot analysed

irishracing.com news

irishracing.com news

Royal Ascot 22-June-2024Khaadem and Oisin Murphy win for trainer Charlie Hills.Healy Racing
© Healy Racing Photos

The concluding afternoon at Royal Ascot comes along on Saturday and the final Group 1 act of the meeting will be the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.

The six-furlong test for older horses is one of the key Group 1 sprints in the calendar and has a history of seeing horses turn out a second time at Royal Ascot, following on from the King Charles III Stakes on day one.

We're taking a look at some of the key trends that might help pick the winner of Royal Ascot's feature race on day five.

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  • 3.406f. 14 Declared.
    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1 ) of £1,000,000.00 4-y-o plus

    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

  • 15 of the last 29 winners had been won/placed at Royal Ascot before winning this race

  • Choisir (2003) and Blue Point (2019) have won this race after also scoring in the King Charles III Stakes on day one

  • Five of the last 22 winners ran in the King Charles III Stakes, as have two of the last 11 runners-up.

  • Eight of the last 12 winners were aged four or five

  • Just three of the previous 12 winners started as favourite/joint-favourite, while seven of the last 12 were in the first three in the betting

  • Ten of the previous 12 winners had at least one Ascot run, while 11 of those 12 had at least one run in the same season (five had won)
  • Consider Lazzat, Topgear and Satono Reve

    Sha Tin 5-December-2024 Hong Kong Mile.Lazzat at morning exercise for trainer Jerome ReynierHealy Racing
    © Healy Racing Photos

    Completing the Group 1 jigsaw at Royal Ascot is the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes - formerly known as the Diamond Jubilee - a six-furlong test for older horses that has often been graced and twice won by horses that have won the five-furlong Group 1 sprint on day one of the meeting.

    Aussie star Choisir in 2003 was the first to win both races and that feat was emulated in 2019 by Godolphin's star Blue Point, twice a Group 1 winner at Royal Ascot over the minimum trip before adding this race to his impressive CV.

    Horses that line up in this race with recent form in the book are best-placed to succeed, with 17 of the last 30 runnings won by contenders that had Group/Listed wins in the book already in the same season.

    Only two fillies have won this race since 1988. The most recent of those was the Australian raider Black Caviar, a superstar for trainer Peter Moody who almost sampled a shock defeat when rider Luke Nolen eased off the revs close to the finish and had to reignite the flames for a dramatic success.

    This race has been good to international challengers, the Aussie pair joined by Cape Of Good Hope (2005) for Hong Kong and Undrafted (2015) for America.

    Those eyeing a similar pattern in 2025 could look to French-based pair Lazzat and Topgear or Japanese speedster Satono Reve.

    Khaadem won successive renewals in 2023 and 2024 for trainer Charlie Hills at odds of 80/1 and 14/1, becoming the first back-to-back winner since Right Boy in 1958/59.

    Nine of the last 10 winners have been trained in Britain, while Aidan O'Brien has won this contest twice, with Aussie import Starspangledbanner in 2010 and Merchant Navy in 2018.

    The Ballydoyle supremo seems set to rely on another import from Down Under this time, Storm Boy hoping to build on last month's Curragh debut for his new connections.