‘Class usually overcomes statistics’ - Which Cheltenham Festival trends can you ignore?

It’s always important to consider trends when trying to pick out a winner, as they can be very informative. That being said, if you really like the chances of a horse that the trends go against, don’t let an obscure trend put you off too much.

Class usually overcomes statistics, and trends aren’t the be-all and end-all. Some stats carry more weight than others, and not all of them warrant too much worry. Here are some Cheltenham Festival trends that can safely be ignored across the four days.

Course form in the novice hurdles

Previous course form itself is important to consider most of the time, as the stiff uphill finish at Cheltenham doesn’t suit those who prefer flatter tracks. Novice hurdles are often the exception, though, as many recent winners have never run there before.

Ireland’s top novice hurdlers stay at home for most of the season and often make their first trips over to Cheltenham in the spring. Only two of the last 10 winners of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle had won at Cheltenham before; both were Champion Bumper winners. Altior is the only Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner in the last decade to have won at Cheltenham beforehand, whilst former Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux is the only Albert Bartlett victor to do so over the same time period.

Five-year-olds in the Champion Hurdle

Five-year-olds have an appalling record in the Champion Hurdle over a long period of time and the last five-year-old to win it was Espoir d’Allen back in 2020. Alan King’s Katchit is the only other horse to have won the Champion Hurdle at five since the turn of the century.

You might think that this is quite damning and whilst it does look that way on the surface, being five isn’t really an obstacle to victory. There are no substantial physiological reasons for it and this statistic looks more like confirmation bias than anything else.

Willie Mullins’ Poniros is the only five-year-old with a chance this year and he won last season’s Triumph Hurdle on his first start over timber. His age isn’t what’s going to prevent him from following up in the Champion Hurdle and if he’s good enough, he’ll win.

Ireland are 0/10 in the Ultima Handicap Chase

A lot has been made over the years about how the Irish-trained runners are handicapped over fences and some say they are often unfairly treated. Those who hold that view hold up the Ultima Handicap Chase as the clearest example of this disadvantage.

British trainers have won the race for each of the last 10 years, but if you look at the results in the other handicaps, the Irish have considerably more success. The Kim Muir is a very good example, as the Irish have won seven of the last 10 renewals.

Whilst it is odd that we haven’t had an Irish-trained winner of the Ultima in the last decade, there isn’t a reason for this, so don’t be put off by any Irish horses based on this trend.