'My Angles for Finding Winners at the Cheltenham Festival'

Cheltenham is the most difficult place when it comes to finding winners. People make year-long plans - trainers, owners, and even punters.

The public see a horse and straight away their reaction to a run is, “Well, this is being set up for Cheltenham.”

They then decide to go out to the ante-post markets and try to get a price for themselves.

Nothing has changed with the way people do this over the years, but through looking at the Festival for a few years, I’ve started to notice some trends that I feel are relevant to Cheltenham winners of the past.

Course Form

The first is course form. I love a horse that’s been there before, that’s done it before. He may not have done it to the most perfect level, but at least, as the saying goes, he can do it on a cold, rainy night in Stoke.

He’s a horse that has experience of the hustle and bustle of the crowd, the announcements blaring, the crowd getting edgy, and the scream when they’re let off. It’s always good to have that onside, and that’s a key factor.

I never really like a horse that’s going to Cheltenham for the first time in his life, as I feel sometimes the occasion might get to him. Sometimes the way the New Course and the Old Course shape up just may not suit them, and if they make a mistake at a certain part of the course, that’s their chance gone.

So it’s really important that your horse knows the ins and outs of the Cheltenham Festival, especially when you’re thinking of them as an ante-post candidate.

Improvers and Target Trainers

The next thing I look for is target trainers and trainers whose horses improve in March and on the day.

Two that come to mind in Ireland are Joseph O’Brien and Henry de Bromhead. They are unbelievable target trainers.

They are unbelievable trainers during the season as well, but for some reason their horses always run well and are consistent at the Cheltenham Festival. We’ve seen it for so many years in the handicaps and also in the top-level races - they are able to compete every time.

Dan Skelton is an English trainer whose horses also improve for the Festival, and we’ve seen that over the years with the late Langer Dan, who unfortunately passed away a couple of weeks ago.

In the Irish dominance of Cheltenham over the last few years, it’s been Dan Skelton who has been waving the British flag, as he and his team have managed to get horses ready for the big occasion.

You definitely want target trainers who have the ability to know what level a horse needs to be at in March to go close or to win.

Finally, you’re looking for horses that have the option to improve or the ability to improve at the Festival.

I always look at novices and eye-catchers that I feel, next time out, if they’re running at Cheltenham, and if things suit them differently or if things went against them in their last races, then they’re likely candidates for big races.

I also love to rewatch horses and look at what they do from the last to the line in their runs this season. An example of this would be Jazzy Matty in the handicap hurdle at Thurles at the weekend.

He’s being aimed at the Grand Annual, and while it was obviously a very satisfactory return for Jazzy Matty and for trainer Cian Collins, the thing I liked most was what he did beyond the last and uphill at Thurles.

When other horses were slowing down, he was actually passing his rivals and gaining confidence. I think that puts him in great order for the Grand Annual again, and being a two-time Cheltenham winner already, I have absolutely no problem being on him for the Cheltenham Festival.

It’s very easy to jump to conclusions with certain horses. You may think that a horse is a certainty and will definitely go well at Cheltenham, but it’s always handy to have other options there, while also trusting what you’re studying.

At the end of the day, it’s your opinion that matters when it comes to Cheltenham because you’re going to be there, you’re going to be watching it on television. The more things you can have in your artillery when it comes to Cheltenham ante-post, the better.

Statistics

Statistics are another really good thing to look at. Horses that may have targeted certain events before a race - what’s the percentage of them going on to win? You can also look at horses that may have fallen in their last race - what’s the percentage of horses that have gone to the Festival after a fall and done well?

You’re trying to build up an army of statistics, an army of knowledge, in order to battle this huge task.

At the end of the day, the Cheltenham Festival is the hardest thing in the world. It’s 28 races, and it’s the most difficult 28 races ever because of the entire occasion.

It’s what makes Cheltenham - the crowd, the pressure, the uncertainty of knowing what’s going to happen. That’s why we see shock results. That’s why Poniros won at 100/1 last year in the Triumph Hurdle, and no one knows how.

It’s just how it all works. It’s how it’s always worked. Horses falling at the last when clear - you can never, ever predict a Cheltenham Festival.

The pressure to get winners

You hear the greatest trainers, like Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and even last year Gordon Elliott, who was emotional after winning his first race of the Festival in the final event, as he showed just how much pressure it is bringing an army over to the Festival and trying to get only one winner on the board, with everything else in bonus territory. Talking about Cheltenham before they go there, they always say that if they could have one winner, it would be great.

It just shows the true level of competitiveness that goes on there, that even the best are satisfied with just one.

Through the years, we’ve seen videos of major jockeys like Barry Geraghty, who has said that the pressure is off once you get one on the board.

Once you get that one winner, it makes the week a lot easier. But it also shows the pressure that builds on jockeys who haven’t won during the week - especially on a Thursday or Friday when they’re riding a fancied horse or a favourite - and how things can become that bit harder for them.

Ultimately this is why we love Cheltenham, it is our Olympic sport and we wouldn't have it any other way.