Ruby Walsh on the Triumph and Ryanair - 'I just think at 40s One Horse Town is overpriced'

Attention turns to the Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle this week as former champion jockey turned tv pundit Ruby Walsh unearths value on the fifth of this year’s Paddy Power Media’s ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ ‘Cheltenham Countdown’ podcasts.

Ryanair Chase Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior likely candidates or not, possibly the Gold Cup instead?

When you look at Florida Pearl, he had a great record at Leopardstown, didn’t ever ever get the trip in a Gold Cup and that’s probably the question mark for both Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File.

Gaelic Warrior would need to settle to get it and Fact To File didn’t look like he got it last year, but looked like he got three miles at Leopardstown really well this year when aggressively ridden.

But it’s still a question mark with both horses, will they get three and a quarter?

It’s an unknown, but it’s a question mark and then when you sit down and toss it around and connections think about it, one of them is likely to think I’ll take the Ryanair, which one it is, I don’t know.

On visual evidence which, in your opinion, do you think is the most likely stayer?

I suppose it’s not even your opinion as I think when you look back through both horses, Fact To File won a two and a half mile bumper as a five-year-old, whereas Gaelic Warrior was getting that sort of trip, won a three-mile Grade 1 novice hurdle as a five-year-old.

So probably there’s always been more stamina in Gaelic Warrior, but I don’t know what it is, three miles and three and a quarter at Cheltenham, it sounds nothing, those two furlongs and a couple of yards, they seem to make a huge difference.

How likely is it that Willie and Paul will try a bit of diplomacy if all the owners want to go Gold Cup?

Yes, just have a frank conversation - that’s what they’ll have. They won’t have it this week or next week, but that’s what it’ll be.

They’ll sit down and have a conversation, lay your cards on the table, everyone will give their opinion and hopefully you’ll find the answer.

Rory points out everything’s fluid and you don’t know exactly what hand you have until declarations

Exactly - unfortunately it could be either of those horses somewhere between now and Cheltenham, one of those horses in the Gold Cup is going to meet with a setback, some sort of a training injury, a pulled muscle or a bad scope or something and it could be either one of those two horses.

So I know we’re getting closer, but you’re still so far away and I think that’s where the fluidity probably stays in the decisions which I know annoys a lot of people, but ultimately you’re trying to run a business and you’re trying to make the best decision at the end of the day, so that is why you leave the decision as long as you can.

Verdict?

The more you go through it and go through it, it’s hard not to see either Fact To File or Gaelic Warrior turning up here, I think one of them will. It’s going to be too good an opportunity.

It’s there for the taking?

It just looks it, doesn’t it?

Free bet on the Ryanair right now, who’s it on?

There’s 27 other races - free bet in the Ryanair, I’m splitting my stake and having it on either one of those two, Gaelic Warrior or Fact To File, because I think either one will be a shade of odds-on if they run.

If you think back to all of the races we’ve had this year, the standout race still in my mind is the John Durkan. As good and all as the King George was to watch, it became a dash down the straight with four horses.

As actually a race to watch from the grandstand, the John Durkan, that was two and a half and it was these two horses.

Now I know they both then contested the Irish Gold Cup and you’re talking about going an extra couple of furlongs with them, but it’s easy to argue both of them are off the charts at two and a half.

Ryanair Chase NRNB

Paddy Power: Evens Fact To File, 7-4 Gaelic Warrior, 4 Jonbon, 6 Romeo Coolio, 7 Jango Baie, 8 Banbridge, Heart Wood, Impaire Et Passe, 10 Il Etait Temps, 14 Firefox, Panic Attack, 20 Found A Fifty, Protektorat, 25 bar

Triumph Hurdle

Narciso Has - how good is he?

I love everything he’s done - I think he improved a good bit from his run at Fairyhouse behind Mange Tout. I thought he was good at Christmas, I thought he was very good at the DRF.

I thought going along in front, he would just love the little bit of company. He’s able to do it, but with a little bit of company, he would have made it easier for Mark to be slipping along a bit earlier than he was, even.

I think the track is made for him, I can see him coming away from the second-last with a clatter of horses queuing up behind him and when the running rail stops and they start heading for the roadway there, he’ll just start to open up and I can already picture him going to the last.

You always think Triumph hurdle winners have to be strong stayers, is he a strong stayer?

I think he is - great mindset and mentality too. Nothing seems to faze him, he’s really relaxed, he has a great way of doing things, he’s a good, solid jumper, obviously every horse needs a little bit of luck on the day, but I do think that he’s ticking all the boxes and I think he’ll be really hard to beat.

Selma De Vary looked very good?

She did and obviously she’d won at Auteuil in early November time before coming across to Willie’s.

She settled well after jumping a hurdle in Leopardstown and a brilliant jump at the second-last kind of shot her into the picture all of a sudden, travelled on to their tails off the home turn and couldn’t match Mange Tout and Narciso Has before eventually getting by Mange Tout.

I do think she looks to have huge potential as a filly, but the fact that you’re getting her halfway through the year and you’re trying to train or keep training something somebody else has been training, it’s not just as straightforward as your own horses where you can look back and think ‘oh hang on, we’ve done that amount of work with them, we’ll freshen them up and go again or that needs more work’, you’re dealing with somebody else’s project and that is difficult.

I think she’s a mare for next year - but I think she’s quick. It’s very hard for five-year-olds, but I’d say she’s a very good filly that could develop into possibly a mares’ hurdle type and I could even see her winning races shorter than that, but I just don’t see her as a classic Triumph type, to tell you the truth.

And the other one that Rich has that won last week is Charme De Faust, won well at Thurles, but will need to step up a good bit on that. And Willie has plenty in here that won’t even be allowed to run in the race, he has three or four entered here that haven’t even run over hurdles yet. I’d imagine they’ll be eliminated at some point.

I think Proactif and Macho Man have both come forward from their Fairyhouse runs and there was much of a muchness between them going there, Proactif probably got a better run of the race than Macho Man did.

There’s not a whole pile between them, but I just think Narciso Has is a little bit ahead of the two of them at the moment. Not to suggest that they can’t improve and get closer to him, but I think they’ve got a little bit to go.

The other one of Willie’s that’s shown a bit too is Minella Academy who won an academy hurdle race in Cork. He seems to be doing things nicely at home as well, but again would need to come forward.

I just think Narciso Has does everything you ask and always gives you the impression that there’s a lot more there.

Most likely winner of the Triumph and one at a price?

Narciso Has and, at a price, I just think at 40s One Horse Town is overpriced for a horse that will keep at it.

Triumph Hurdle NRNB

Paddy Power: 5-4 Narciso Has, 5 Selma De Vary, 6 Proactif, 8 Maestro Conti, Minella Study, 10 Fantasy World, Feel Gut, Macho Man, 12 Charme De Faust, Mange Tout, 20 Highland Crystal, Kai Lung, Winston Junior, 25 bar