Cheltenham Festival Preview: Arkle Novices' Chase Tips

With only seven days to go until the Cheltenham Festival, the irishracing.com team of Emma Nagle, Johnny Ward and Paddy Flood were joined by William Hill's Sam Norris on the recent Cheltenham Preview Show to preview four days of top-class action. Here are their thoughts on this year's Arkle Novices' Chase.

Sam Norris

I do think Kappa Jy Pyke has been a little overlooked. Another horse from Willie Mullins. We have started to see a bit of two-way interest in him over the last few weeks. I think he is around 20/1 and has moved into about 14/1 in some places.

He beat a subsequent winner in Jacobs Ladder last time, and he also lowered the colours of Salvador Mundi before that, a horse who had a big reputation a season or two ago.

Even though the main narrative of the race will be the showdown between Kopek Des Bordes, hopefully he goes, and Lulamba, I think Kappa Jy Pyke at a high price is interesting. He has done enough in his form to suggest he could outrun his odds.

He has beaten decent horses and is progressing, and in a race like this, those types can often surprise people. I would not be dismissing him for each-way purposes.

Paddy Flood

I like Kopek Des Bordes. I suppose if anyone is going to do it, it will be Willie Mullins, and I think the horse is brave enough that he will not get a rabbit-in-the-headlights scenario when he gets to Cheltenham. He is a big, strong horse with a great engine. If he is in one piece, that is the main thing.

We did see him galloping at Punchestown and, by all accounts, it was serious work. He blew them away. But if you are having a bet, you would prefer him to have another run. He only won a beginner’s race at Navan, and Paul may have let the handbrake down a little bit. He only asked him twice up the straight and, when you are travelling that well and not fully under pressure, it is easy for a horse to look impressive. That is the concern: he might not have learned a huge amount.

If they go off fast in a big race and he decides to think about things, anything can happen. That is the risk. I do like Lulamba. He is a good horse, but I do not think his form is strong enough yet. His Cheltenham form last year is nowhere near good enough for a championship race, and the Triumph Hurdle form has not worked out brilliantly. Even his Punchestown win, while impressive visually, does not scream top-class form.

I was not overly taken with him last time either. He is intelligent compared to some horses. Kopek will charge at his fences, whereas Lulamba tends to meet them nicely and use his brains. That can be an advantage, but it can also mean he is not as bold in overcoming his obstacles. The first two fences last time were not perfect; he ballooned one of them. If he does that in a big race, it could cost him.

He is a very good horse and will win good races, but I am not convinced he is ready to win a championship contest yet. He has shown flashes of ability, quickening in parts of his races, but he still has quirks. If he balloons a fence two or three times in a big race, it becomes very difficult to win.

Johnny Ward

You cannot be confident that Kopek Des Bordes is definitely going to run. He has had one run this season, and he bombed at Punchestown last year as well. There were definitely question marks before Leopardstown. What was going on, and why were we not hearing anything?

For me, Lulamba would be the market leader, and the market is not far off that view. Lulamba for me, and Romeo Coolio each way, are the plays here. If Romeo Coolio does not run, that is fine; you get your money back. Lulamba is an absolute machine, and I think Paddy is spot on. He is a very intelligent horse. He almost looks like he is just going through the motions in his races at times.

I love the engine he has. You watch him over his last couple of starts, and at the beginning of the race, it looks like he is spending a mile in the air at his jumps, then he just gets going.

I cannot have Kopek Des Bordes at 2/1 given he is taking on Lulamba. He has won once this year and flopped in his previous run. It is a terrible prep for an Arkle to be going there off just one run. It does not matter who trains you, that is not a prep for an Arkle, full stop.

We saw last year that Majborough was 2/5, and he could not jump around on the back of his prep. I just cannot have Kopek Des Bordes at all, even if he runs.

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