Five Cheltenham Festival trends to note

The Cheltenham Festival is now just a week away and racing boffins are keen to extract every ounce of information ahead of the Cotswolds showpiece.

There simply is no racing event in the calendar that generates more talk and debate, plus data, stats and predictions, than Cheltenham.

Festival trends can be key when assessing your Cheltenham fancies, and below, we've picked out five to think about.

Supreme Novices' an outlier

Festival trends are always worth considering, but the opening gambit might be worth isolating. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle, this year to be run in Michael O'Sullivan's name, doesn't tend to follow the mantra of requiring 'Cheltenham experience' like so many other races across the four days.

In fact, just four of the last 12 winners have made prior starts at the course, with just two over the same period winning at the home of jumps racing.

Those hoping to get off to a flyer with favourite Kopek Des Bordes should also be noting that only one outright favourite has won the Supreme since 2016, though 11 of the last 12 winners came from the first three in the betting.

Beware the Brits in the Ultima

The last decade has witnessed a period of unprecedented Irish domination at the Cheltenham Festival, though one race stands out as a beacon of British dominance.

The Ultima Handicap Chase hasn't been won by an Irish-trained horse since Dun Doire stormed up the Cheltenham hill in 2006. Indeed, Irish trainers have only won the race twice since the turn of the century and Irish-trained runners are 0-37 in the last 12 years.

A key trait to look out for is headgear. Nine of the past 13 runnings of the Ultima have been won by a horse wearing some form of headgear, with cheekpieces or blinkers the ones to pay attention to. Stamina is key, with 15 of the past 17 winners having previously won over 3m or further.

Challow form hard to have faith in

Lots of talk has centred on The New Lion for Dan and Harry Skelton this season, with the Turners Novices' Hurdle the preferred target.

He was last spotted making it 4-4 under Rules by winning the Challow at Newbury in December, but the previous 20 winners of that race, who subsequently ran at Cheltenham as novices, have all been beaten.

A better option might be to look at the previous years' Champion Bumper, from which recent winners Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard have graduated to win this race. Indeed, the last 15 winners of the Turners had all won at least one bumper, while 13 of the previous 17 winners were trained in Ireland.

Ryanair the place for frequent flyers

Assessing the contenders in the Ryanair Chase, it will be vital to look for course form, as 16 of the last 20 winners have boasted at least one win at Cheltenham beforehand.

Min (2020) and Allaho (2021) are examples of Ryanair winners that had not won at Cheltenham before, but even they had Cotswolds experience, having placed in Grade 1 races at the Festival.

Repeat performances are a key trait in the Ryanair, with the likes of Cue Card, Albertas Run and Vautour all bagging this race, having won before at the meeting.

Triumph often awaits for the favourite

The Triumph Hurdle is the Festival's Grade 1 for juveniles and has recently forged a bias for the market leaders, owing in some part to the creation of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle in 2005.

In the last 10 renewals, the favourite has obliged five times, as the likes of Peace And Co, Defi Du Seuil, Vauban and Lossiemouth left punters delighted. Goshen would have been another in 2020, but for his final flight fall.

Willie Mullins has scooped four of the past five runnings and had the 1-2 last year, making it nine of the previous 12 for Irish-trained runners.

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