Can the British be toppled in the Ultima?

We are residing in an era of unmatched Irish domination at the Cheltenham Festival, as the raiding party routinely lords it over their British hosts.

In the last five years, Ireland has enjoyed 94 winners at the Cotswolds showpiece, compared to just 44 for UK-based runners.

The one race that has remained sacrosanct for the British fraternity is the Festival Trophy Handicap Chase, the Ultima, which hasn't gone the way of an Irish-based winner since Dun Doire came from the clouds to win for Tony Martin and Ruby Walsh in 2006.

Can the home challenge be toppled in 2025 in this three-mile-one-furlong stayers' handicap chase on the opening afternoon? A look at the trends might help identify possible winners.

Watch those ratings

The official ratings are a good place to start, once confirmed. 13 of the last 26 winners had an official rating between 139 and 145, while the first two home in 2024 were both rated 143.

Stamina a must

This contest over three-miles-and-a-furlong is often run at a decent clip and so stamina is a key factor. All but two of the last 17 winners had previously won over 3m or further.

Up and comers

Six of the past 12 winners were in their novice season over fences, so despite the rough and tumble, a horse on the way up is generally the way to go.

Just six horses aged 10 or older have won this race since 1997 and since 2010 only a further four in that category have even managed to make the frame.

Cheltenham-factor

One of those trends was busted by Vintage Clouds in 2021 as he was 11-years-old when he scored, but his course experience was crucial as he was running in the Ultima for the fifth year in a row.

In the last 15 years, 10 winners had run at Cheltenham earlier in the same season and four of the other five winners had either won or been placed in this race or another race at The Festival.

Favourites tend to struggle

Corach Rambler was a joint-favourite when scoring in 2023, his second straight success in the Ultima, while Coo Star Sivola rewarded favourite-backers in 2018. That pair aside, just one other favourite in 26 years has scored and that was Wichita Lineman under a sensational AP McCoy ride in 2009.

Pay attention to headgear

Nine of the past 13 runnings of the Ultima have been won by a horse wearing either cheekpieces or blinkers. In four of those years, the first and second home both sported one of those aids. No visored horse has managed to win in that time frame, though Shantou Flyer was denied a neck in 2018.

Avoid Nicholls

Paul Nicholls has tasted more than his share of Festival success but the Ditcheat supremo is 0-26 in this contest and hasn't managed to get one in the frame since 2009. Only two Irish winners have emerged this century, with 37 raiders being beaten since 2012.

Verdict

The stats for Irish runners are poor, and the UK handicapper isn't likely to be allowing many runners to head across the Irish Sea off lenient marks.

A British-based runner off a mark in low 140s sporting cheekpieces or blinkers and with proven form at three-miles plus, preferably around Cheltenham, is what the doctor orders.

That should help cut out plenty of the field, and it could be further reduced by honing in on Jonjo O'Neill and David Pipe, who have both won the race three times, as well as Lucinda Russell with two winners and two placed horses from just six runners.

Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019 with Beware The Bear and the Seven Barrows supremo has enjoyed more placed horses than anyone (8-25) in the previous two decades.

Keeping those Brits on side looks the way forward in a race the home side should continue to boss.

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