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'I cannot get my head around the price he is' - Gold Cup preview

irishracing.com news

irishracing.com news

Chester 8 May 2025 Illinios and Ryan Moore win the Ormonde Stakes Chester 8 May 2025 Illinios and Ryan Moore win the Ormonde Stakes
© Healy Racing Photos

The Gold Cup at Ascot this Thursday presents a fascinating betting proposition, with Aidan O'Brien's Illinois installed as the 11/8 favourite to fill the void left by the two-time Gold Cup winner Kyprios. However, our panel of experts on our 2025 Royal Ascot preview show has serious reservations about the market leader's pricing.

Johnny Ward's Assessment: "I cannot get my head around the price that he is because it's almost like everyone has jumped to the conclusion that this is the new Kyprios. If Kyprios were in this race, Kyprios tended to go off at sort of backable prices around about the even money mark. Illinois is around 6/4 based on being a very good three-year-old - it doesn't add up to me when you're taking on proven horses in the race."

Illinois, winner of the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot last year, brings solid credentials but faces the ultimate test of stamina over the extended two-and-a-half-mile trip. While his consistency and battle-hardened nature are positives, the step up in distance remains unproven.

The Proven Stayers Look Value

Stephen Harris on Trawlerman: Trawlerman as far as I can see, will get another very soft lead that he got at Sandown when he made all and landed the odds there. Trawlerman ran an absolute screamer from the front in this last year.

From a place point of view, the each-way terms are very favorable to the punter. You've got them by the short and curlies I think.

Johnny on Sweet William: Sweet William for me, his runs behind Kyprios have been rock solid throughout. He's a really solid stayer, hardly ever runs a bad race. Usually misses the break but that's not really a problem. He warmed up for this behind Rebels Romance and he'll definitely come on for that run because this would have been his aim all along.

These horses don't have Kyprios to worry about now, so it's like the bookmakers are saying 'Well they're not going to beat Illinois.' I just think it's jumping to a conclusion

French Challenge from Candelari

Emma Nagle's Pick: Candelari, the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained runner for the late Aga Khan.

Emma's reasoning: It's only going to be his sixth career start. He only started running in December, had a couple of runs on the all-weather, and then it was his second start on the grass when he came out and won the Group One at Longchamp.

The way he went away from them, stepping up - a horse came to him in the last 500 yards and he just pulled out a bit more and kicked on again.

If I was going to back one of the young up-and-comers, I'd probably take a small chance on this horse. I think he has loads of natural ability.

Watch the full video preview here: