Cheltenham Festival Preview 2026: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Tips

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks a wide open content this year and our team of Emma Nagle, Paddy Flood and Johnny Ward have differing thoughts on the opening contest. They were joined by Sam Norris from William Hill to discuss.

Sam Norris

We laid My Daddy Paddy right through the autumn. We pushed him in from 33/1 down to 5/1 before he was beaten at Aintree on Boxing Day. Even after that defeat, he remains a big loser in the book for us, which shows just how strong the support was earlier in the season. El Cairos actually fell on his hurdling debut, which would normally put people off. But instead of drifting in the betting, we found ourselves cutting his price for all the major novice races in the spring. It was unusual to see such confidence behind a horse after a fall, but the word around him was very strong.

At one stage, when he was still owned by David Maxwell, El Cairos was as big as 66/1. The day before the Maxwell dispersal sale at the October meeting in Cheltenham, everyone was talking about him. He was expected to be the top lot, and there was a real buzz. Because of that excitement and the reputation he had built at home, we ended up laying him at higher prices even though he had fallen the first time out.

Johnny Ward

Leader D’allier went out to 20/1 after winning his maiden hurdle. He could not have been more impressive that day, and he was the horse Patrick mentioned as a possible contender for this race even before he ran at Christmas. I am not convinced the hype around the favourite is fully justified, simply because he has not yet taken on any of these horses. Talk The Talk is short enough in the betting now. I do like him, but he is facing serious opposition.

El Cairos, for me, is slightly ground-dependent. I also have some concerns about his preparation. I still do not know how he avoided falling at the last hurdle the other day; that was another close call. There is definitely a question mark there, even though he clearly has the ability.

If I had to choose, I would side with Leader D’allier, but that is mainly down to the price. I think he is a very good horse, particularly if the ground comes up soft. He showed real promise in his maiden, and the way he kept going was impressive.

Paddy Flood

I think Talk The Talk is a well-above-average horse. I think this is a Champion Hurdle horse in the making, to be honest, and he should not have won at Leopardstown.

If you go back and watch that race, there was muck, there was slop, there was everything. He never really saw a hurdle. He was not relaxed enough to suggest that he should have had the finishing speed that he did. From getting up the straight and going past the line, he was going away. He was gone. Old Park Star has done that. He has been at the front in all his races. He has looked good jumping, but for me, he is not a quick jumper. He is a chasing type, a beautiful-looking jumper. Whereas I think JJ went out the last day to get a bit of cover, but the way the race ended up, it was such a messy contest. He was buried. He was trying to get away from the stand.

JJ was trying to go out and could not get out, tried to go in and could not go in. He was stuck on heels and, from the back at the last, that takes some doing from that horse.

I think that form and the way he won it, meant he is miles ahead of anything we have in Ireland, and I think he is better than Old Park Star.

El Cairos, for me, I think they think a lot of him, because Gordon was saying beforehand that he was losing sleep about him not winning a maiden hurdle.

That was the easier option than not going to the race and losing sleep over it. My worry with him is that there is a quirk in him. But riding him will simply be about not seeing a hurdle and making sure you have something to run at going to the last, which you will.

For me, the Supreme is not always for speedy horses; it is for staying types.

Emma Nagle

I kind of fancy King Rasco Grey. I certainly would not be ruling him out either. He was only beaten by a short head.

Comments from Willie there, I know you take it with a pinch of salt, but he said he saw him in the parade ring and thought he looked like a pregnant mare.

Even going back to his Limerick maiden hurdle win, that form looks very good because the second has come out and won since. That is a strong piece of form.

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