Always Back The Outsider Of Three Three runner races are relatively uncommon but every time one crops up you will hear some bright spark quote the old adage: "Always back the outsider of 3." On the occasions when the outsider does win more join the chorus of "the outsider of 3 always wins." Recently in Ireland we have had a number of 3 runner races and surprise surprise (or not) the outsiders keep winning. So what is the truth? Well we have run the stats on every 3 runner race run in Ireland and the UK for the last 25 years and here is what actually happened: Ireland 338 Races of which 12.43% or 42 were won by the outsider. UK 2665 Races of which 12.25% or 326 were won by the outsider. And would you have made a profit if you backed them all? Well the answer to that is unfortunately no, but you would lose a lot less backing the outsider in every 3 runner race than you would backing either the favourite or 2nd favourite. Ireland level stake returns based on the SP price Fav -214.60 2nd Fav -143.14 Outsider -104.25 UK level stake returns based on the SP price Fav -1,532.24 2nd Fav -481.46 Outsider -311.92 So if you are going to bet in three runner races you will lose less money backing the outsider than either of the other two horses in the long term.
