Goffs Doncaster Breeze-Up 2026: A Data-backed Shortlist for Buyers And the breeze-up caravan rolls on. Barely able to catch our collective breath from last week’s Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up, we are moving quickly on to the Goffs Breeze-Up sale at Doncaster next week. Another powerhouse sale whose graduates from 2025 have thus far delivered the highest win rate of any breeze-up sale last year, with 45% of runners to date having won at least one race, a very impressive stat to say the least. Incidentally, 28% of runners to date from this sale last year have also achieved a rating of 80 (Tattersalls Craven at 33% and Arqana at 39%), so it’s not far off in quality terms either. A sale for value The hallmark of this sale however, at least if 2025 is anything to go by, is value. A string of notable graduates emerging at accessible prices from last year include Silca Blue (rated 97, sold £9k, by Space Blues), Miss Yechance (rated 93, sold £48k, by Cotai Glory, re-sold for 250,000gns after winning on debut), Chairmanfourtimes (rated 92, sold £50k, by Nando Parrado) and The Lost Sock (rated 83, sold £50k, by Cotai Glory). While bigger spenders in 2025 acquired good, 90 rated horses like Rogue Supremacy (rated 95, sold £160k, by St. Mark’s Basilica) and Hilitany (rated 100, sold £300k, by Ubettabelieveit), the data nevertheless indicates that this sale represents a tremendous opportunity for those with smallish budgets to get a great result. For example, of the 35 horses to emerge so far from 2025’s edition to achieve a rating of 80 , the price divide is as follows; 21 were bought for £100k or less (60%) - Average £47k | Median £50k 14 were bought for more than £100k (40%) - Average £349k | Median £250k So a clear win for the less expensive group on headline count, though there's a caveat (as ever with data!): there were 138 lots who sold for £100k or less vs just 30 above £100k, so the “cheaper” pool had the numbers to go to war with to produce 80 horses. In reality, on a like-for-like basis, spending more than £100k at this sale in 2025, in the round, did indeed give buyers a better chance of having a winner and an 80 rated horse, than spending less, with the breakdown as follows; Above £100k spend: 65% of runners to date have won | 56% at 80 Rating At or below £100k: 41% of runners have won | 21% at 80 Rating So we know there is quality across the board, but how do we find the good horses in the lower cost bracket? That’s the key challenge for the average-ish buyer. The good news is that it doesn’t need to be a stab in the dark. The buying blueprint At this point, I should refer you back to my recent piece, Breeze-Ups 2026: a data-backed blueprint for buying, in which I detail the key findings from my analysis of the breeze-up class of 2025. The analysis helped to surface a potential blueprint for breeze-up buyers to follow when looking to find value in 2026, and I apply it here for the Goffs Doncaster Breeze-Up to create a shortlist for consideration. (Tldr: look to the value sires, a specific data-led breeze time band, and a top consignor. If you do, you won’t have to break the bank for a good shot at success). The blueprint has real utility in narrowing the focus. When applied to lots sold for £100k or less last year, it narrowed the shortlist to 7 lots ticking every box. Since then, 5 have run to date and all 5 have won, 2 rated 80 . That's a 100% win strike rate and 40% at 80 from a small but well filtered sample. That’s a significant step-up from the baseline below £100,000 of 41% to win and 21% at 80 Rating. Key takeaway Good horses can absolutely be found at Doncaster at accessible prices. The trick is knowing which ones to look at. Application of the blueprint is key. The Shortlist Like a good sourdough starter, the data from the key BU sales in 2025 is the basis upon which my shortlisting continues to be baked based. Not too dissimilar in feel to the Tattersalls Craven shortlist in terms of the value sires, with Ardad a new addition, the good news is that there was a bigger pool of lots to choose from at this sale when applying the blueprint. Let’s take a look. Note: The below lots are selected in absence (obviously!) of the clocked breeze-up times which won’t appear until after the breeze session on Tuesday next. However, when they do emerge, we are looking for some of these lots to land between 21.25 and 22.0 seconds, the combined window of Prime Speed and Target Zone outlined in my research that delivered a 49% win rate from the top 3 breeze-up sales in 2025. Value Sire 1: ARDAD (Data 2025 insight: clear filly edge) His key stats on fillies sold at all 5 key Breeze-Up Sales in 2025 (sample size at top 3 sales too small): 11 sold | 8 runners (73%) | 50% winners | 38% at 80 Rating | Avg €49k | Median €30k Goffs Doncaster Shortlisted Lot(s): Lot 60 | Ardad ex Unnatural (Proud Citizen) | Filly | Egmont Stud Pedigree Comments: Not the most outstanding pedigree on show, but don’t pass this filly over too quickly. Her dam has had some success at stud with just ok sires to date (e.g. Pride Of Dubai), and chances are that Ardad will be a step up for her. While she was unraced, she has some decent siblings, some of whom have been quality broodmares, producing classy performers. Still time for this dam to produce a good one. While no precedent for the Kodiac sire-line X Proud Citizen damsire cross, the latter is not a bad damsire, with Crimson Advocate a top class, recent example. Lot 193 | Ardad ex Mary Mount (Havana Gold) | Filly | Shortcastle Bloodstock Pedigree Comments: Another light-ish page, but that can be forgiven as it is still early days on the dam side, with this filly being the first foal. While unraced, the dam is a half-sister to two sprint winners, one of whom is black-type, with plenty of pacy types the further you go back. As noted, the sire does so well with fillies that it will be interesting to see what kind of time she does. If time is sharp enough, could easily be a winner as a 2yo, and unlikely to be a ritzy price. Value Sire 2: COTAI GLORY His key stats from Top 3 (Craven, Doncaster, Arqana) Breeze-Up Sales in 2025: 7 sold | 7 runners | 71% winners | 43% at 80 Rating | Avg. €39k | Median €48k Goffs Doncaster Shortlisted Lot(s): Lot 46 | Cotai Glory ex Sun Sign (Shamardal) | Colt | Church Farm Stables* Pedigree Comments: Sire has moved on to sunnier climes, but remains a key value sire to follow for buyers. While there is little to go in terms of the direct Cotai Glory X Shamardal damsire cross (Divilment one example) for this February-born colt, there is still potential in the nick given that Exceed And Excel has done very well with Shamardal mares, examples including Zeitung and Palmar Bay. Interesting that this colt’s dam is indeed a half-sister to a black-type performer by Exceed And Excel, so the nick is there to see. Church Farm Stables were also one of the standout consignors in 2025. Lot 80 | Cotai Glory ex Affina (Kodiac) | Filly | The Bloodstock Connection Pedigree Comments: The Tally Ho-championed Cotai Glory X Kodiac damsire cross needs no introduction having produced the likes of Powerful Glory and The Platinum Queen, thus making this filly of interest automatically. However, plenty will still avoid the sire given the reputation of his offspring for being headcases hot, presenting opportunities for others. Equally, this filly’s winning dam (already produced an 80 rated sprinter) is from a family of stayers essentially, and some people will be sniffy about that you can be sure. If this filly can land in the clocked time sweet-spot, she is one to look at closely. Lot 207 | Cotai Glory ex Mosey (Dream Ahead) | Colt | Tally Ho Stud* Pedigree Comments: Surprisingly little to go in terms of Cotai Glory (and even Exceed And Excel) nicking well with Dream Ahead mares, but the Danzig/Danehill sire-line does seem to work well (Showcasing a good example) and this colt’s dam has produced a winner by a son of Danehill in Kodiac, so every chance this could work also. 2nd dam was also a group winning speedster, so this colt is bred to be potentially electric. He is also a May foal, and as highlighted in my Breeze-Ups 2026: a data-backed blueprint for buying piece, fast breezing late foals can often be talented. One to keep an eye on for sure. Value Sire 3: HELLO YOUMZAIN His key stats from Top 3 (Craven, Doncaster, Arqana) Breeze-Up Sales in 2025: 13 sold | 10 runners | 60% winners | 70% at 80 Rating | Avg €81k | Median €86k Update Note: Sire had 2 lots at Tattersalls Craven BU last week selling for only 32,500gns and 80,000 (vendor) despite clocking 21.84 seconds and 21.66 seconds in their respective breezes. A sire who continues to be underrated despite producing quality horses, including recent Group 1 placed 2yo in New Zealand, Sweetest Thing. Goffs Doncaster Shortlisted Lot(s): Lot 54 | Hello Youmzain ex Thiswaycadeaux (Thewayyouare) | Filly | Tally Ho Stud* Pedigree Comments: This filly’s dam was a tough and durable 6f/7f black-type mare who achieved a highest OR of 93 in her day. No great shakes at stud yet, but perhaps this is the one. General ambivalence towards the sire means a good breeze time from this filly might still go under the radar. Does equally well with fillies and colts. No precedent for the Hello Youmzain/Kodiac X Thewayyouare damsire cross, but the damsire died young so not many broodmares on the ground. Definitely one to note for a top consignor in 2025. Value Sire 4: SIOUX NATION (Data 2025 insight: clear filly edge) His key stats on fillies sold at all 5 key Breeze-Up Sales in 2025 (sample size at top 3 sales too small): 18 sold | 8 runners (44%) | 50% winners | 63% at 80 Rating | Avg €156k | Median €105k Goffs Doncaster Shortlisted Lot(s): Lot 56 | Sioux Nation ex To Shine (Holy Roman Emperor) | Filly | Ballynure Park Stud Pedigree Comments: The sire’s fillies (who he excels with) can be expensive, but sometimes they slip through at affordable prices. Unraced dam has been modest at stud given the quality family she comes from, but what stands out for this particular filly is the cross. The sons of Scat Daddy X Holy Roman Emperor damsire cross has produced some outstanding racehorses including Porta Fortuna (Caravaggio), Brave Emperor (Sioux Nation) and Mountain Bear (No Nay Never). That dimension alone makes this filly very appealing. Lot 89 | Sioux Nation ex Anna Maria (Invincible Spirit) | Filly | Glending Stables Pedigree Comments: Another filly for whom the cross is very appealing, with another son of Scat Daddy, No Nay Never, nicking very well in the past with Invincible Spirit mares to produce quality performers such as Trillium and Cadomosto for example. I am not saying that Sioux Nation can or will repeat the trick, but it gives cause for optimism. This filly’s granddam was a superstar, and her dam is a half-sister to the tough-as-teak sprinting legend that is Duke Of Firenze, who was no superstar but ran 134 times in his career. Value Sire 5: SPACE BLUES His key stats from Top 3 (Craven, Doncaster, Arqana) Breeze-Up Sales in 2025: 12 sold | 6 runners | 83% winners | 50% at 80 Rating | Avg €37k | Median €16k Goffs Doncaster Shortlisted Lot(s): Lot 14 | Space Blues ex Savoy Showgirl (Kyllachy) | Filly | Ardglas Stables Pedigree Comments: Space Blues is a sire who many have already made their mind up on and will avoid. This could be an opportunity. He still finished 2nd (a long way behind Starman) in the first season sires race of 2025, producing stakes performers along the way, so premature to write-off in my opinion. This filly’s dam won twice as a 2yo (Rated 86) and has done reasonably well at stud with some iffy sires, so interesting to see what she can do with a son of Dubawi, for all that there is no precedent for the Dubawi sire-line X Kyllachy damsire cross to go on. A lot will depend on the time, and the consignor Ardglas Stables always do a good job. *denotes blueprint top performing consignor in 2025 And there you have it. Only 9 lots from a catalogue of 219 (less withdrawals to date), but that's the intention. Each lot is there because the data, on at least one blueprint metric, says it should be. Look to the times on Tuesday and if some of these land in that all-important 21.25—22.0 second window, especially those from the asterisked top consignors, they deserve the eye-test on site. As ever, the clock will have the final word.
