Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips All eyes will be on Longchamp on Sunday for a fantastic card from the Paris track, featuring six Group 1s and a host of British and Irish runners. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the obvious highlight, the 1m4f contest the principals middle-distance race in Europe and boasting over £4m in prize money. There is a strong field of 18 declared, Aidan O’Brien double handed with last year’s third Los Angeles and the unbeaten Minnie Hauk, the latter heading the market. NAP: Aventure Next Best: Estrange Aventure hard to pick holes in Christophe Ferland’s AVENTURE arrives in Paris on the back of a smooth success in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille over course-and-distance last month and looks primed to go one better than 12 months ago. Beaten a length-and-a-quarter by Ralph Beckett’s Blue Stocking in last season’s race (comfortably ahead of Los Angeles), he’s got form figures of 22211 from his five visits to Longchamp and has rock solid credentials. With plenty of rain forecast, underfoot conditions could get pretty testing, but that’s of no concern to the son of Sea The Stars with last year’s renewal having been run on ground officially described as very soft. In addition, he was a runaway winner of a Group 3 on heavy early in his career. Last month’s defeat of the reopposing Gezora was the best performance to date, a Racing Post Rating of 120 bettering his previous best by 1lb and, given he’s only had a total of 12 starts in his career, it’s very likely that there is more to come from the son of Frankel. He’s been handed stall 12, which could be better, but equally three of the last 10 winners have come from double figure draws, two of them from this exact berth. Estrange may turn tables on Minnie Hauk Aidan O’Brien has reported Minnie Hauk in excellent fettle as she bids to enhance her unbeaten record, the three-year-old now clear of the selection at the head of the betting following a comfortable defeat of ESTRANGE in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in August. However, that triumph came on good to firm ground and it’s hard to be sure she’ll be as effective on a testing surface; her maiden win on soft ground over a mile notably workmanlike. Her trainer, while having landed the prize with Dylan Thomas in 2007 and Found in 2016, has had a lot of high-profile horses beaten and his overall strike-rate in the 1m4f showpiece equates to only 3%. That’s a surprisingly poor record and that, combined with the ground concerns, is reason enough to leave her alone at her current odds. David O’Mear’s Estrange was no match for Minnie Hauk at York last time, but she was visibly feeling the ground and we could see much more from the four-year-old granted more suitable conditions. One-time favourite in the ante-post markets earlier in the year, she was Impressive when slamming her rivals on her debut at Goodwood on soft ground last season and is 2-2 with ease underfoot. She’s 4-6 in her career and hasn’t got a great deal to find on ratings, so could well sneak a place at rewarding odds.
