Supercomputer Predicts Galway Plate 2023 Winner: Hewick

Following two consecutive winning predictions in the Ascot Gold Cup and the Epsom Derby, we asked our AI Supercomputer at irishracing.com to come up, once again, with a victorious prediction, this time, for the fiercely competitive Galway Plate staged on Wednesday at 18.40. 

The winner prediction: Hewick (IRE), followed by Streets of Doyen (IRE) and Gabbys Cross (IRE). 

Hewick, bought at just €850, was a popular winner of the 2022 Galway Plate under Rachael Blackmore. This Grade 2 steeplechase for four-year-olds and upwards, is hosted in midsummer at Galway Racecourse and is one of the highlights of the week. Our data experts believe Shark Hanlon’s stable star can follow up in 2023. 

In this project, we collated all the historical data we have on previous Galway Plate winners and utilised machine learning techniques to identify the most likely winner among the current contenders for the 2023 race.

Here is a table showing the top five predictions according to our computer generated experiment.

How Does the Supercomputer Predicts the Galway Plate Winner?

The Science

To effectively analyse the data, we applied feature encoding and scaling techniques. Categorical features were encoded using the LabelEncoder, assigning unique numerical labels to each category. Numerical features were standardised using the StandardScaler, ensuring all features were on a similar scale for accurate comparison.

To establish a baseline profile for the typical Galway winner, we calculated the median values of the historical winners’ encoded and scaled feature set. This allowed us to identify the most representative combination of attributes that characterised the typical winner.

To determine the similarity between each historical winner and the most typical winner, we employed cosine similarity. This metric enabled us to measure the similarity in feature space, providing a quantifiable measure of how closely each historical winner matched the most typical winner.

Weighting the data

Recognising that certain features carry more significance in determining the winner, we assigned weights to the important elements within the data. These weights were based on domain knowledge and expert insights. The distance of previous performances, most recent race performance, breeding, key Trial races, betting positions were given higher weights to reflect their greater impact on the prediction.

Determining the most likely winner

Next, we compared the current contenders for the 2023 Galway Plate against the most typical winner using the calculated similarity scores. Each contender’s feature set was encoded and scaled following the same methodology used for historical winners. The similarity scores were adjusted by multiplying them with the respective weights of the important features.

To identify the most likely winner from the current contenders, we aggregated the adjusted similarity scores for each contender. The median value was chosen as the summary statistic for the overall similarity scores. By considering both the feature similarity and the weighted importance of features, we obtained a comprehensive measure of each contender’s likelihood of winning the Galway Plate.

Results and Prediction

This prediction suggests that Hewick would most likely win the Galway Plate according to our ML model. A cosine similarity score of 0.902 suggests a relatively high degree of similarity between the most similar contender and the average historical winner. The closer the score is to 1, the more similar the contender is to the historical winners in terms of their features used in the analysis.

About Hewick

Hewick is trained by John Joseph Hanlon and currently owned by T J McDonald. His current earnings are over €400,000. He was sired by Virtual out of the Oscar mare Ballyburn Rose. Hewick has won nine of his 31 career races. His biggest victory came in the Grade 1 Grand National Hurdle Stakes in 2022, staged in the US. He followed that up with wins in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in October 2022 and the Galway Plate in July 2022. He then lined up in the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he was going well before falling two out.