National No Trouble For Roche Star

Attempting to pick the Grand National winner two months before the great Aintree jamboree has proved folly in the past but recent years have shown a distinct shift in the trends.

People trying to unearth the winner of the world's greatest race regularly trot out the old cliche's such as 'it's a lottery' or 'anyone can win' but those days now appear firmly behind us.

The BHB's senior handicapper Phil Smith is giving the classier horses much more of a chance now by artificially compressing the weights.

As such, a lot of the horses who would have been running from out of the handicap 10 years ago would now have no chance of getting a run.

Long gone are the days when a trainer could plot a year in advance and save a nice-looking handicap mark as anyone treading such a path is now likely to find their horse will struggle to make the cut.

Bearing this in mind, it should become slightly easier to assess the challengers ? although in practice this is far from true.

The four-and-a-half-mile trip and 30 fences still provide the most severe test a horse and jockey can face in the racing calendar but horses like Hedgehunter and Clan Royal have come back year after year to prove the Aintree factor is still vitally important.

Despite the handicapper's best efforts though, the Irish trainers, after a drought in the 1980s and 1990s, have become extremely adept at getting one ready for the big day in April.

And this year's hero could again hail from the Emerald Isle.

Christy Roche ? a very useful jockey in his younger days ? is now plying his trade in the training ranks and his handling of Grade One winner Like A Butterfly shows he knows what it takes to win the big pots.

With regard to the National, the horse in question is Far From Trouble, owned by legendary Irish gambler JP McManus, who, incredibly, is yet to win the Aintree showpiece despite umpteen attempts.

He has endured dreadful luck in the race, not least when the aforementioned Clan Royal was carried out two years ago when travelling like the winner.

His best days now seem behind him but the same can not be said of Far From Trouble, who is likely to have the assistance of none other than AP McCoy.

Far From Trouble has always been highly regarded, and with a victory in the ultra-competitive Galway Plate to his name, he has also proved his liking for the hustle and bustle of big fields.

Before that he had finished third in the four-mile-one-furlong race at the Cheltenham Festival when the usually competent JT McNamara sat too far off the pace.

Following that he fell when travelling strongly in the Irish National and returned this year with an eye-catching success over hurdles at Down Royal.

After that triumph, his handler suggested giving the big race a miss and waiting a year, but after being allotted only 10st 10lb last week, connections are reconsidering their options.

He will never again be given such a chance by the handicapper and with Ladbrokes going a standout 16-1, punters are advised to snap that up with haste.

(C) PA Sport