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Epsom Derby Antepost Betting Analysis

irishracing.com news

irishracing.com news

York 21-August-2024The Lion In Winter and Ryan Moore win for owners Coolmore and trainer Aidan O'Brien.Healy Racing
© Healy Racing Photos

The Epsom Derby is a little over two weeks away and the picture for the world's oldest Classic race is far from crystal clear.

Aidan O'Brien mopped up Classic trials in Britain and Ireland at will, seemingly, during the month of May but his long-time ante-post favourite The Lion In Winter was beaten in the Dante at York.

Despite that, the previously unbeaten colt has been supported in the Derby betting in recent days, reclaiming favouritism.

Newmarket's 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court is in close attendance for Charlie Appleby while York scorer Pride Of Arras completes a quartet vying for Epsom favouritism.

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  • Lion In Winter appeal hasn't cooled

    With a record 10 wins, Aidan O'Brien knows all about winning this Epsom Classic. The Ballydoyle supremo is going for a hat-trick following wins for Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy (2024).

    Those successes are perhaps pointed when it comes to assessing the current positivity around The Lion In Winter.

    Both Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy were disappointments in their seasonal comebacks in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket before sparkling at Epsom.

    The Lion In Winter was being prepared for the Rowley Mile contest but a late — reportedly minor — setback ensured he missed out and went to York instead.

    He was well backed on the Knavesmire come raceday but raced quite keenly and was unable to get close to the main protagonists as he was beaten by four lengths into sixth.

    He should leave that run behind, and the market support cannot be ignored easily, but the York run also offered plenty of reason to be reticent that the Sea The Stars colt will truly thrive upped to the mile-and-a-half trip of The Derby.

    O'Brien trims his options

    Leopardstown 16-May-2025Kyprios winning trainer Aidan O'Brien with the press after his win.Healy Racing.
    © Healy Racing Photos

    At the start of this week O'Brien scratched as many as seven possible contenders from the Derby field. The Ballydoyle handler accounted for seven of 17 that were scratched from The Derby on 20th May.

    The Dee Stakes winner Mount Kilimanjaro was amongst them but, more pertinently, so too was Twain.

    After being a late absentee from the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, last season's unbeaten Group 1-winning juvenile Twain was expected to take in the Irish equivalent instead but another dirty scope has ruled him out and his trainer suggests he will have a break and come back 'in the autumn'.

    The O'Brien 2025 Epsom collection now stands at five. The Lion In Winter is joined by trial winners Delacroix, Lambourn and Puppet Master as well as Shackleton, a curragh maiden winner last season but unsighted so far this term.

    Lambourn won the Chester Vase and Puppet Master took Lingfield's Derby Trial but the best performance from a Ballydoyle colt was probably Delacroix's win in the Leopardstown Derby Trial and his comeback success at the Foxrock track in March has also been handsomely advertised since.

    Arras to be fired at Epsom

    New Bay colt Prince Of Arras was amongst the unbeaten contenders that lined up in York's Dante in May but an SP of 18/1 suggested Ralph Beckett's challenger wasn't expected to follow up last summer's Sandown debut win.

    Rossa Ryan's partner took a sizable step forward at York and was a clear-cut winner at the line from Damysus in second and Wimbledon Hawkeye in third.

    After just two runs, he has plenty of scope for more progress at Epsom and he wouldn't need an unfathomable improvement next time to be a leading contender.

    Both Damysus and Wimbledon Hawkeye remain in the mix for John & Thady Gosden and James Owen respectively, as do plenty of the other vanquished Dante rivals, including The Lion In Winter and Tuscan Hills.

    Ruling Court was a good Guineas winner at Newmarket, though perhaps gained a tactical advantage when William Buick kicked for home sooner than some key rivals.

    His trainer Charlie Appleby won this race with Masar in 2018 and Adayar in 2021 in the Godolphin blue and Ruling Court is his only remaining Derby entry.