How do Cheltenham winners fare at Aintree? There are many factors to consider when looking at how likely horses are to perform at Aintree after winning or running well at the Cheltenham Festival. Often horses appear to have come out of their Cheltenham races well but fail to fire at Aintree, but the truth is it’s very hard to know what’s going to happen until they try. Here we look at some of the key races at Aintree and Cheltenham and how regularly horses tend to win at both festivals. We’ve also considered some of the important factors that could make a significant difference to specific cases. New Course vs Old Course The first two days of the Cheltenham Festival are run on the Gloucestershire track’s Old Course which is significantly sharper and there’s a much greater emphasis on speed. As a result, many of the races tend to take less out of horses, although there are exceptions. The New Course is very different and there’s a much greater emphasis on stamina. As a result, the races can be a lot more gruelling, especially over longer trips, and it’s definitely worth bearing this in mind ahead of Aintree. Ground conditions It goes without saying that soft or heavy ground Cheltenham Festivals are a lot more demanding than when the ground is good to soft or good. This can vary greatly from day to day and it can be good to soft on Day 1 and soft or heavy the following day. Those who ran on the first day would have had a significantly easier time of it and could therefore be at an advantage if heading to Aintree after that. Time between festivals This is a big one and it could be a major factor in 2026, as the gap between Aintree and Cheltenham is the longest it can possibly be. Day four of Cheltenham this year was on the 13th March and there’s almost an entire month’s gap between Aintree’s start on April 9th. Obviously, the longer the gap the more likely horses would have gotten over their Cheltenham exertions, so we could see a good showing from Cheltenham runners this year. Champion Hurdle vs Aintree Hurdle Champion Hurdle winners have a relatively good record in the Aintree Hurdle in recent years, although the fact that it’s run over four furlongs further means the champion hurdler doesn’t always line up at Aintree. Since 2016, Annie Power (2016), Buveur d’Air (2017) and Constitution Hill (2023) have all done the Champion/Aintree Hurdle double. In each of the other six seasons, the Champion Hurdle winner didn’t line up at Aintree, they either ran at Punchestown or didn't run at all. Champion Chase/Ryanair Chase vs Melling Chase This is a more interesting case as the Melling Chase is run over 2m4f on a sharp, flat track at Aintree, which tends to attract both Champion Chase horses (two-miles) and Ryanair Chase types (2m4f). Both have very good records in recent years. Jonbon has won the Melling Chase for the past two seasons and those successes came off the back of second-place finishes in the Champion Chase. Fakir D’oudairies was runner-up in the Ryanair Chase before winning the Melling in 2021. Alberta’s Run (2010), Finian’s Rainbow (2012) and Sprinter Sacre (2013) all won either the Ryanair Chase or the Champion Chase en route to victory at Aintree. Races to avoid The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase’s stats have been skewed slightly by Irish dominance in recent years, which means the winner tends to go to Punchestown rather than Aintree. Very few horses have managed to pull off the double in the last 20 years or so. The Liverpool Hurdle is one for the stayers and Big Buck’s made a habit of winning both when dominating the division between 2009 and 2012 Only four horses have managed to win at Aintree after scoring at Cheltenham; Whisper in the 2014 Coral Cup and Stayers’ Hurdle winners Sire Du Berlais, Thistlecrack and Solwhit.
