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Curragh's Phoenix Stakes Tips: O'Brien's True Love vs. Gstaad

irishracing.com news

irishracing.com news

18-6-25 Royal Ascot.True Love and Ryan Moore win the Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies' Group 2).Healy Racing Photo
© Healy Racing Photos

The Curragh hosts a quality eight-race card on Saturday and the Phoenix Stakes, a Group 1 for two-year-olds over 6f first run in 1902, is the undoubted highlight.

Aidan O'Brien has won the race 17 times during his sensational training career and the Ballydoyle-based handler appears to hold the key once again with three of the six runners representing him, including the top two in the market.

Selection: True Love

Next Best: Gstaad

Moore might have chosen wrong - again

The decision of Aidan O'Brien's stable jockey Ryan Moore to partner Gstaad over TRUE LOVE is obviously significant, but there is little between that pair on form.

Both horses are very much on the up having won their respective Group races at Royal Ascot, the latter taking another step up with an impressive win over the reopposing Puerto Rico in the Railway Stakes over this course and distance subsequently.

Moore has one of the best jobs in racing, but there's an air of expectation around his success each year and that must bring massive pressures. For him to choose the 'right one' each time simply isn't possible and his loss has been Wayne Lordan's gain on a couple of occasions already this season, including in the Derby at Epsom and the Goodwood Cup.

True Love sets the standard on official figures, rated 115 as opposed to Gstaad on 114, but the selection will be in receipt of a 3lb fillies' allowance, which could prove crucial, as was the case when Babouche edged out Whistlejacket in this very race last season.

Interestingly, the pair have met already, Gstaad coming out on top by three-quarters-of-a-length in a Navan maiden in May. A lot has happened since, but it's hard to imagine there will be much between them again on Saturday. At the current prices, True Love represents by far the biggest value.

No Sense in looking outside of the 'big two'

Curragh 20-July-2025Sugar Island and Ryan Moore win for trainer Aidan O'Brien.Healy Racing
© Healy Racing Photos

There's a big gulf between the two market principals and the remainder on ratings. Puerto Rico, O'Brien's third-string, is the next highest rated on 103.

Still a maiden after four starts, he was thumped by True Love here last month and, whilst showing improved form when second in the Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood recently, it's hard to see him being good enough.

Joseph O'Brien 's Green Sense is a talented filly in her own right and, barring a lacklustre run in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, she's improved with each start, culminating in a neck victory in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly last month.

However, she appeared to relish the soft ground in France and the conditions at The Curragh on Saturday won’t be anything like as testing.

Adrian Murray 's Power Blue has been keeping good company throughout this season and deserves to take his chance. A 5f maiden winner on soft ground here on debut, he ran well behind the likes of Lady Iman, Albert Einstein prior to finishing five lengths adrift of Gstaad in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

4.006f. 5 Declared.
Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) of €350,000.00 2-y-o