Thyestes Chase: Three key trends to look out for Gowran Park hosts its biggest National Hunt card of the season on Thursday and we have seven races to look forward to. The Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle isn’t to be missed and there’s a very well-bred newcomer to watch in the concluding bumper. The feature race is the valuable and thoroughly competitive Thyestes Chase, which was won last year by Aintree’s Grand National winner Nick Rockett. A field of 18 has been declared and we also have three reserves waiting in the wings. Trends are a good way of working out the ideal profile required to win a race like this, so we’ve picked out three of the most telling recent ones. Form on right-handed tracks This has been a significant factor in the last decade, as nine of the last 10 winners had won on a right-handed track beforehand. The good news is that this applies to every runner in the race, so all of the main candidates tick this box. Favourite Better Times Ahead has won twice at Fairyhouse, which is a right-handed track, while another well-fancied runner Answer To Kayf has won at Limerick in the past. Gordon Elliott hasn’t been in great form but Search For Glory is entitled to be in the mix here. Willie Mullins has five horses who are guaranteed a run and one reserve. Captain Cody and High Class Hero are two of the more intriguing candidates, whie the Brian Hayes-ridden Quai De Bourbon can’t be ruled out either. Official ratings Eight of the last 10 winners have been rated between 138 and 150. Last year’s winner Nick Rockett was probably the most notable winner in the last decade to buck the trend and he went on to win the Bobbyjo Chase and Grand National on his next two starts. Better Times Ahead is only rated 131, despite being favourite, and this trend would be a negative with regards to his chances. High Class Hero, Quai De Bourbon and Intense Raffles are all rated 151 or higher. Meanwhile, the likes of Answer To Kayf, Captain Cody and Search For Glory are all single-figure prices and fit in the 138-150 bracket. Will Do, Conyers Hill and Shanbally Kid are rated lower than 138 so you can lightly rule them out. Recent form and seasonal winners It could be important to note that eight of the last 10 winners finished in the first three at least once in their last three starts. Many of the remaining candidates fit the bill, but outsiders Pied Piper and Velvet Elvis are hard to fancy with that in mind. Rather surprisingly, eight of the last 10 victors also hadn’t won a race over fences that season, so leading contender Answer to Kayf would need to buck this trend, similarly so would Spanish Harlem, who won the Kerry National in September. Verdict Search For Glory finished behind Answer To Kayf at Navan earlier in the season but he has run two crackers to finish second in competitive handicap chases on his last two starts and could be well set to go close once again.
